US30 Probability of Sustaining 54k by EOW

Looking at the $US30, we're currently hovering around 54036.93. The run-up has been pretty strong, but the daily range today, 53807.94–54094.65, indicates some resistance at these higher levels. I'd put the odds of seeing a sustained close above 54,000 for the entire week-end, say by Friday's close, at about 60%. The momentum is there, sure, but a slight cooling off or minor profit-taking before the weekend wouldn't surprise me. The market needs to consolidate these gains a bit.

Key factor for me is whether we get any significant hawkish rhetoric or unexpected economic data this week that could dent that positive sentiment. Absent of that, I think the buyers will defend this level, but we might see a dip towards 53,800 before a potential bounce. It's not a slam dunk, but the path of least resistance is still up, for now.