Fed's March Dot Plot and 5.25% terminal rate

Watching the March FOMC closely. The market is currently pricing in a terminal rate somewhere around 4.9% by May/June, but I'm leaning towards the Fed's dot plot, which will likely still show 5.25% or higher for 2023. Given recent CPI and employment data, the 'higher for longer' narrative has legs. I'd put the odds of the median dot for 2023 at 5.25% or above at roughly 65%. If this happens, expect some renewed dollar strength and a potential retest of recent lows in growth equities. Conversely, if they start signaling a pause sooner, $NZDCAD might see some immediate pressure, though fundamentals for NZD remain decent. The divergence between market pricing and Fed signaling is the key setup here.