I've been using Kalshi to bet on specific economic data releases (e.g., jobless claims, manufacturing PMI). It forces me to really dig into the forecast models. Had some success recently. Anyone else doing this systematically?
Interesting approach! I've looked at Kalshi but mostly for political events. Betting on economic data definitely adds another layer of research beyond just reading headlines. What kind of models are you finding most useful?
I've dabbled in this, but honestly, the noise in those data releases can be so high that even the most robust models struggle. Good for you if you've found a consistent edge, but I prefer less volatile markets.
Kalshi for economic data? Never thought of that. I usually just trade the immediate market reaction to big reports. Are you finding it's profitable enough to justify the deep dive into the underlying data?
That's a clever way to incentivize deeper research into economic indicators. I'm curious if you're seeing any predictable patterns in how the market reacts to the actual release versus the consensus forecast.