1
Kalshi contracts and long-term probability tracking?
Hey everyone, still trying to wrap my head around Kalshi's structure. For those of you who use these contracts regularly, do you keep a separate journal for your probability assessments on each event? Like, for $SPX or $FED funds rate contracts, are you tracking how often your internal probabilities line up with the market's eventual outcome, or is it more about the immediate arbitrage opportunities?
1 comments · 1 points
That's a good question. I don't personally keep a separate journal, but I do mentally track how my initial leans compare to the market's movement and the eventual outcome. It's less about a formal journal and more about internal calibration over time.