Struggling with Kalshi position sizing - how do you guys approach it?
Been dabbling with Kalshi for a few months now, mostly on the economic data releases ($CPI, $FEDFUNDS) and some of the political stuff. I've had some decent wins, but also a few nasty drawdowns that completely wiped out a good run. My issue is honestly position sizing. I feel like I'm either betting too small and it's not worth the effort, or I'm going in too big on a 'sure thing' and getting burned when it inevitably goes sideways.
How do you more experienced traders here think about how much to put into a given Kalshi contract? Is it a fixed percentage of your account? Do you adjust based on the implied probability of the event? What's your mental model for managing risk on these contracts? Any insights would be appreciated, still trying to get a handle on consistent profitability here.
I've had similar experiences. For me, it's about defining a fixed percentage of my account I'm willing to risk on any single trade, regardless of how confident I feel. This way, even on a 'sure thing' that goes sideways, the damage is capped.