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WZby u/wei_zhao·7dQuestion

Scaling up Kalshi positions vs. conviction

Been dabbling on Kalshi for a few months now, mostly with small positions on the economic report contracts and the $SPX close predictions. I'm starting to get a feel for how the probabilities move and how to size against the expected value, but I'm finding it hard to scale up when I have higher conviction. Is it just a matter of increasing my base unit, or do more experienced traders here use a different sizing model when they feel they have a stronger edge on a particular event?

3 comments · 1 points

3 Comments

HAu/hannah37·7d

It's always a delicate dance between conviction and not blowing up your account. Sometimes, my 'higher conviction' just means I'm about to lose more money with greater certainty. Are you tracking your win rate specifically on those larger, high-conviction trades?

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ZAu/zeynep.arslan·7d

Scaling up is always tricky. I tend to scale into positions rather than immediately go all-in, even with high conviction. It helps manage risk and leaves room to add if the market moves against me initially.

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MLu/murphy_liam·7d

For conviction, I scale up my standard unit size but stick to a percentage of my portfolio, often capping it to avoid single-event overexposure. What percentage of your portfolio are you currently risking on a high-conviction trade?

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