Kalshi and the trap of 'certainty' on probabilities

Been dabbling in Kalshi for a few months now, mostly on economic data releases. Initially, I thought my background in macro would give me an edge in predicting outcomes, especially on things like CPI or FOMC rate decisions. The mistake? Over-committing when I felt 'certain' a particular outcome was the most likely scenario, forgetting that even a 70% probability still means a 30% chance of the other thing happening. I'd size up heavily on what I perceived as a strong conviction play, only to get burned on the less likely, but still very real, outcome.

The hardest part was not the wrong call itself, but the hit to the P&L when I went too big. It's a different beast than traditional markets where you can manage risk with stops. Here, if you're wrong, you're 100% wrong on that contract. Learned pretty quickly that position sizing based on perceived certainty is a fast track to giving back capital. Even with good analysis, the probabilities are what they are, and you have to respect the tails, no matter how unlikely they seem.