Kalshi - Prematurely exiting trades because of implied probability swings

I've been on Kalshi for a few months now, mostly playing around with the macro event contracts and a few of the more niche political ones. One lesson I've learned the hard way, and it's probably obvious to anyone with more experience in these markets, is the danger of exiting a position too early simply because the implied probability moves against you temporarily. I had a decent chunk in the 'Will $SPX close above X by Y date?' contract, where my entry was at a solid value point given my read of the market. After a couple of days, the probability started dipping, mostly due to some slightly weaker-than-expected economic data, and I got cold feet, selling off a good portion of my stake for a small loss. Of course, a few days later, a positive catalyst emerged, and the contract rallied back, ultimately settling in my favor had I just held. It's tough not to react to those short-term swings, especially when you see your potential profit eroding, but I'm realizing the importance of sticking to your initial conviction if the fundamental thesis hasn't actually changed. My mistake was reacting to noise, not signal.