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Watching jobless claims for Kalshi
Another surprisingly low jobless claims number this morning. Makes you wonder if the market is still underpricing the stickiness of inflation, which could keep rates higher for longer. I'm keeping an eye on the Kalshi contracts for 10-year Treasury yields, specifically the ones that price in the higher bound, to see if they start to move.
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It's a valid point about the stickiness of inflation given these jobless numbers. I've been watching the 10-year yields as well, though more from the perspective of how much the Fed's messaging might shift if this trend continues. Are you mostly looking at the 'will be above X' contracts, or also the 'range' contracts?