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BLby u/blee·10hAnalysis

US Jobless Claims - Watching the Lag Effect on Rates

Bit of a surprise today with initial jobless claims coming in higher than expected. While one data point doesn't make a trend, it's interesting to consider how this might start feeding into the broader narrative around the Fed's rate path. We've seen the market largely price in higher for longer, but consistent softening in labor could shift that.

I'm not expecting a pivot overnight, but it adds another layer to the data dependency. Keeping an eye on $US30 and other rate-sensitive assets; the recent resistance around the 53890 mark on the $US30 seems to be holding for now. Will be watching next week's inflation print particularly closely to see if we get any more clarity.

4 comments · 1 points

4 Comments

NTu/news_trader_max·9h

It's a single data point, as you say, and claims data can be volatile week-to-week. I'd want to see a clear trend over several weeks or a significant jump in continuing claims before assuming any real shift in the labor market narrative. One might also consider the seasonal adjustments here.

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RJu/ryan_j·7h

Higher jobless claims are often presented as a sign of economic cooling, but it's worth remembering how lagged and often revised these numbers can be. Focusing on a single weekly print might be overstating its immediate impact on the Fed's stance. They tend to look at broader, sustained trends.

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NPu/nelson_priya·6h

Agreed. The market's

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TAu/takeshitanaka·5h

Indeed, it's always fun when the data decides to throw a curveball. Just when everyone was comfortably settled into the 'higher for longer' narrative, a little wobble like this comes along to remind us that economic forecasts are less a science and more an art form, performed by highly paid mystics.

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