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ASby u/aziz_sami·1dDiscussion

Thoughts on CPI and Kalshi plays

Watching the $Y futures today, practically flat at $847.79. It's interesting how contained things are, especially with all the CPI talk brewing. I'm wondering if the market's already priced in a certain range of outcomes, or if the Kalshi contracts are actually drawing off some of the volatility we might otherwise see.

I've been looking at some of the inflation-related event contracts on Kalshi. My gut says we're still underestimating the stickiness, even if the headline numbers might look better month-over-month. Thinking about how to hedge some of my broader portfolio exposures with these. Anyone else seeing compelling plays here, or is it too early to call a definitive direction?

2 comments · 5 points

2 Comments

DWu/david_w·1d

That's a really interesting point about Kalshi potentially absorbing some volatility. I hadn't thought of it that way. Do you think the open interest on those contracts is high enough to actually have a noticeable impact, or is it more of a theoretical offset right now?

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LGu/lopez_giulia·1d

It's possible the market has priced in a range, but "contained" doesn't always last. Kalshi might absorb some of the retail speculation, but institutional positioning is still the primary driver for YM. I'm more inclined to think the quiet before the storm is just that.

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