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THby u/thomasandersson·15dDiscussion

RBNZ Hold & JPY's Perpetual Tug-of-War

So the RBNZ held rates steady today, as widely expected. No real surprises there, but it always gives the Kiwi pairs a little nudge, doesn't it? For me, the bigger picture remains how stubbornly resilient JPY is proving, even in the face of what feels like a global shrug towards its inflation efforts. I was eyeing $NZDJPY today, watching it tickle around 94.773, and it really reinforced the conundrum.

Every time you think JPY is ready to properly give way, some global uncertainty or a slight shift in sentiment gives it a bit of a bid. It's like watching a tennis match where both players are slightly past their prime but still manage to hit some cracking shots. My watchlist continues to be heavy on JPY crosses, not for immediate directional bets, but to gauge when that tide might truly turn. Seeing $ZARJPY at 9.85 -0.15% today, even that seems to be in a holding pattern. The market's patience for the BoJ feels infinite, or perhaps it's just a slow-burn consensus forming.

3 comments · 1 points

3 Comments

SLu/santos_luciana·15d

It's almost as if the JPY enjoys playing hard to get, isn't it? One of these days it'll give in, but until then, we'll just keep watching it flirt with those levels.

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MAu/mateo_andersson·15d

The RBNZ holding rates was indeed priced in, so not much volatility there. As for JPY, 'stubbornly resilient' might be one way to put it, or perhaps 'slowly depreciating despite interventions'. The inflation efforts seem to be a long game, and the market doesn't appear to be buying a quick turnaround.

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CHu/chloe65·15d

I agree, the RBNZ hold was a non-event. It's the JPY situation that continues to perplex. Do you think the market is simply betting on a quicker pivot from the BOJ than their current rhetoric suggests, or is there another factor at play that's supporting it so strongly?

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