NZD and the RBNZ - watching for cracks

It's interesting to see $NZDJPY pushing up today, currently at 94.879, right near the top of its daily range. We've seen a pretty consistent narrative from the RBNZ about keeping rates higher for longer to tame inflation, and the market has largely bought into that. But I can't shake the feeling that the economic data, particularly the recent employment figures, are starting to show some signs of strain. While the headline unemployment rate remains low, the underemployment rate is creeping up, and wage growth, though still elevated, might be plateauing.

My take is that if we get any unexpected dovish tilt, or even just a more cautious tone from the RBNZ in their upcoming statements, that could put some significant pressure on the Kiwi. I'm keeping a close eye on the 95.00 handle on $NZDJPY, as a strong rejection there could signal a shift in sentiment. On the other side, $USDTRY continues its relentless climb, now at 47.1374; a fundamentally different beast driven by its own unique domestic factors, and one I'm largely observing from the sidelines given the volatility, but it does highlight the diverging paths global central banks are forced to take.