DAX 18,000 Revisit by Month-End?

Considering the current choppy price action on the DAX, and recent statements from the ECB indicating a potential pause in aggressive rate hikes, I'm leaning towards a retest of the 18,000 level by the end of May. The underlying economic data out of Germany isn't exactly screaming for a strong breakout to the upside just yet, and we still have some inflation figures looming. I'd put the probability of hitting 18,000 again somewhere around 60%, assuming no major external shocks.

While we're seeing some attempts to push higher, the momentum feels somewhat muted. The resistance around the 18,200-18,300 zone has proven sticky, and without a significant catalyst, a retracement to find demand again at 18,000 or slightly below seems plausible before any sustained move higher. It's more of a consolidation scenario than a clear directional trend at this point.