DAX Re-Test of 18,000 by Month-End? Weighing the Odds

Been watching the DAX fairly closely this past week, and the resilience, despite some choppy action, has been notable. We've seen a few attempts to break higher, but also a persistent magnet around the 18,200-18,300 zone. With the recent consolidation, I'm starting to think about potential retests of prior support levels if macro sentiment shifts even slightly.

Specifically, I'm giving a roughly 60% probability to a re-test of the 18,000 mark on the DAX before the end of May. My reasoning isn't based on any single catalyst, but rather a confluence of factors. Inflation prints across the eurozone haven't exactly been dovish, and while the ECB is playing a careful hand, any further hawkish rhetoric or a surprisingly strong US jobs report could easily spark some profit-taking in European equities, especially after a fairly strong run. Furthermore, we've had some significant corporate earnings pass, and without new positive catalysts, a bit of 'sell the news' could set in. It's not a call for a deep correction, more of a natural consolidation within a broader uptrend, but one that could certainly tag that psychological 18,000 level again. A close below that, however, and the picture changes fairly quickly. On the flip side, sustained positive momentum in US tech could easily drag European markets higher, making that 60% quickly erode.