DAX Reaching 18,500 by Month-End: A Probabilistic View

Considering the recent price action and the general sentiment around European equities, especially with the $EM holding above 1.19, I'm starting to lean towards a more optimistic close for May. We've seen some resilience in the DAX despite lingering inflation concerns, and a few positive corporate earnings reports seem to be offsetting the broader macroeconomic jitters. My current read suggests there's about a 60% chance we see the DAX touch 18,500 before the end of the month. The reasoning isn't purely technical, though the charts do show some consolidation after the recent dips. It's more about the underlying flow of funds and the perceived 'buy-the-dip' mentality that's been prevalent, coupled with the potential for further positive news from the ECB's rhetoric. Of course, any significant geopolitical shock or a hawkish surprise from central banks could easily invalidate this, but absent those, the path of least resistance seems to be upward momentum back to those levels.