DAX Re-testing 18,500 by Month-End? My Odds and Rationale

Been watching the DAX fairly closely this past week, and the resilience has been notable given some of the broader macro chatter. We've seen a couple of pushes towards the upper end of its recent range, and while it hasn't decisively broken out, the bids seem to be coming in consistently on any significant dip. The current consolidation around the 18,200-18,300 level feels like it's building pressure for a move.

My gut feeling, supported by the slightly softer inflation data we've seen from some EU members and the general narrative around potential ECB cuts later in the year, is that we're going to see a serious re-test of the 18,500 psychological barrier before the end of the month. I'd put the odds of seeing that level touched at least once by May 31st somewhere around 60-65%. The primary risk, of course, would be any hawkish surprises from the ECB or unexpected geopolitical escalations, which could quickly unwind this optimism. But barring those black swans, the path of least resistance seems to be gently higher as investors front-run potential rate cuts.