DAX: Still leaning towards a retest of 18,500 by month-end

Been watching the DAX action lately, and while we've seen some sideways chop, I'm still feeling like a retest of the 18,500 level is on the cards before the end of the month. We've got a decent amount of support around the 18,000-18,100 area that seems to be holding for now, but the upward momentum just isn't convincing enough to break out convincingly past current resistance. The price action, combined with what seems to be a general risk-on but cautious sentiment across broader markets, suggests that while there isn't a strong bearish push, the bulls are running out of steam quickly at higher levels. If we do see any meaningful geopolitical blip or weaker-than-expected macro data, that 18,500 could crack pretty fast.

I'd put the odds of seeing 18,500 or lower by month-end at around 60%. Not a slam dunk, but the path of least resistance still seems to be down, or at least a significant retracement. We're seeing similar themes play out in other European indices, though perhaps not as pronounced as in the DAX. Keep an eye on $AIQ and $NZDJPY today, as their movements could give a decent read on broader risk appetite for the session, especially if $AIQ's current upward trend continues, though it's a bit of an outlier.