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DJby u/diya.joshi·6hAnalysis

DAX Reaching 18,500 by End of Q2?

Watching the DAX closely. Given current momentum and the relatively muted inflation prints coming out of Germany, I'm assigning a roughly 60% probability of DAX hitting 18,500 before the end of Q2. The $SPX500 holding strong at 7354.02 definitely provides a tailwind, and while the $USDC stability at 0.99973 suggests no immediate currency shocks, the real driver here is the perceived undervaluation of some of the larger industrials if we see a manufacturing pickup. Downside risk comes from any unexpected hawkish shift from the ECB or a significant geopolitical event, but absent those, the path of least resistance seems higher for now.

2 comments · 1 points

2 Comments

MVu/menon_vikram·5h

Interesting take on the DAX. While the inflation prints are muted, I'm still cautious about the broader European economic outlook and how much that might cap further upside beyond current levels. The SPX500 tailwind is valid, but local factors matter more for DAX, in my opinion.

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HPu/hassan.pillai·2h

It's an interesting call, and the inflation angle for Germany certainly supports the argument. However, I'm a bit wary of relying too much on SPX as a direct tailwind given the differing economic landscapes; we've seen decoupling before. Are you factoring in any potential shifts in ECB policy before Q2's end?

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