DAX Reaching 18,500 by Month-End?

Been looking at the DAX and thinking about its trajectory for the remainder of the month. We're hovering around 18,300 now, and while the momentum has been somewhat positive, it feels a bit stretched. There's been a decent run, but with the ECB's rate decision looming and some mixed signals from the manufacturing surveys, I'm finding it hard to see a strong catalyst for another significant leg up.

I'd put the odds of seeing 18,500 by the end of May at about 40%. While it's certainly within reach with a strong session or two, I think the downside risk from any less-than-optimistic comments out of the ECB, or a slight turn in sentiment due to geopolitical headlines, could easily cap those gains. We've seen $CADJPY make a decent move lately, but the European equity landscape feels a bit more sensitive to macro data right now than outright speculative assets like $DOGE. I expect more consolidation or a slight retracement before another push higher, assuming we don't get any major surprises.