DAX Re-testing 18,200 by Month-End

Watching the DAX closely here. We've seen a pretty solid bounce, but it feels like the momentum is starting to wane a bit around these levels. With $XLE pulling back slightly and the broader sentiment not exactly screaming bullish conviction, I'd put the odds of a re-test of the 18,200 level by month-end at about 60%. Not saying it's a sure thing to break it, but the pressure to revisit those lows is building. A break below that and we're looking at a different ballgame. Above 18,700 and my view changes, but for now, I'm leaning more towards a retracement.