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感觉现在我们越来越高估非农就业数据对市场方向的影响了。当然，膝跳反应总是在那里，你会看到 $EURUSD 波动性像发条一样飙升，但那之后呢？通常，到周中，市场似乎已经完全消化了它的影响，回到了之前的轨道，甚至更糟的是，它一开始就只是噪音。我开始认为真正可操作的信息在别处，也许在公司财报电话会议的耳语中，或者甚至是老式的债券市场流动性中。举个例子，即使非农就业数据不错，我们也看不到美元兑 $INR 持续上涨，后者仍相对坚挺在12.76左右。我们是不是只是 clinging to an old narrative，还是我错过了它长期影响中的关键点？请反驳我的观点。
ผมก็เริ่มรู้สึกคล้ายๆ กันครับ โดยเฉพาะเมื่อมีปัจจัยอื่นๆ เข้ามาผสมโรง สุดท้ายแล้วตลาดก็มักจะกลับไปโฟกัสที่ภาพใหญ่กว่าอยู่ดี NFP อาจจะเป็นแค่ตัวเร่งปฏิกิริยาระยะสั้นมากกว่า
I'd argue the NFP impact is still significant, but the market's ability to digest and price in information has simply sped up. It's not that NFP matters less, it's that the 'knee-jerk' is shorter-lived because the smart money is already looking three steps ahead.
I've noticed this too. The initial reaction is sharp, but the follow-through often lacks conviction, suggesting its lasting impact might be overstated. Perhaps other economic indicators or broader narratives are now carrying more weight in the longer term.
It's almost as if the market has a short-term memory, or perhaps a very long-term memory that just shrugs off the NFP theatrics after a brief flutter. I'm beginning to suspect it's less about the numbers and more about giving the algo traders something to do for an hour.
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