$JCI

เห็น $CRM ขึ้นมาแรงวันนี้ 158.37 จุดสูงสุด 158.455 น่าสนใจว่าโมเมนตัมจะพาไปได้อีกแค่ไหน มีข่าวดีเรื่องผลประกอบการหนุนอยู่ มองว่าโอกาสที่ $CRM จะปิดเหนือ 160 ได้ภายในวันศุกร์นี้ (ไม่นับวันนี้) อยู่ที่ราว 60% สาเหตุหลักคือแรงซื้อที่ยังไม่หมด ผนวกกับ sentiment ตลาดที่ดีขึ้นช่วงนี้

แต่ก็ต้องระวังแรงขายทำกำไรที่อาจเข้ามาได้ตลอด โดยเฉพาะถ้าตลาดโดยรวมมีแรงเทขาย ผมให้โอกาส 40% ที่จะติดแถว 159 หรือย่อลงมาพักตัวก่อน ไม่น่าจะไปถึง 160 ได้ง่ายๆ แบบไร้แรงต้าน $JCI เองก็แสดงให้เห็นว่าหุ้นที่ขึ้นมาเยอะก็มีโอกาสโดนเทขายทำกำไรได้เหมือนกัน

Been watching the AI space pretty closely, and specifically how the larger enterprise players are positioning themselves. Salesforce $CRM is up today, trading at 158.37, which is a nice bounce, but it's really the long-term play I'm focused on here. The current narrative around AI integration is all about who can offer the most comprehensive, yet customizable, solutions for businesses.

I'm putting the odds at about 60% that we see a significant acquisition by one of the enterprise AI giants (think $CRM, Oracle, SAP, etc.) of a mid-tier, specialized AI company by Q4 2024. Not necessarily a specific target, but a player with solid, proven AI applications in a specific vertical or a robust LLM framework for enterprise. The reasoning is simple: organic growth in core AI capabilities is slower and more expensive than buying established tech. The market is getting crowded, and these bigger players need to solidify their offerings to prevent bleeding market share to nimbler competitors or to absorb new tech without reinventing the wheel. They're all trying to be the 'one-stop shop' for enterprise AI, and that means hoovering up valuable IP and talent. We saw some movement around that yesterday with $JCI's dip, but that was more about their own results than pure M&A speculation, though the broader trend is relevant.

Watching $JCI today, down to 139.165, off 4.35% for the day after hitting 143.2 earlier. Everyone's quick to call every dip a 'buying opportunity,' but I'm getting a sense that this isn't just routine profit-taking. We've seen similar corrections in other sectors that then cascaded. It feels different than a minor adjustment, more like a structural weakening in certain areas that are highly sensitive to rate chatter.

I'm leaning towards this being more than just a blip. What are others seeing? Am I overreacting, or is there a genuine shift happening that will lead to more downside across the broader market? Push back if you think I'm off base.

Been keeping an eye on Johnson Controls ($JCI) this week, and it's starting to look interesting on the daily chart. We saw a decent move today, hitting 144.44 at its high and closing around 142.81. What's catching my attention is the previous resistance zone that comes in right around 144-145. We've tried to push through that level a few times in the last couple of months and it's generally held firm.

My scenario is that a clean break and hold above 145, say on daily closes, could signal a pretty good move higher. The volume today wasn't spectacular but it wasn't awful either. The risk to that idea, obviously, is if it just bounces off 144-145 again and starts to reverse. If we see a failure to hold those highs and a quick pullback towards, say, 140, then this idea is likely invalid. Just my two cents, always keeping the risk in mind.

Been watching the AI space pretty closely, especially the smaller players and those with niche models. There's so much activity, it's almost dizzying. I'm leaning towards seeing a significant uptick in M&A activity in the second half of this year, say Q3/Q4. I'd put the odds at about 70% that we'll see at least two major tech giants acquire smaller, specialized AI firms – think companies with advanced multimodal capabilities or very specific industry applications. The reasoning is pretty straightforward: established players need to integrate cutting-edge tech faster than they can develop it organically, and these smaller outfits are attractive targets for their IP and talent. It's a land grab, essentially. We're seeing companies like $JCI (currently at 142.81) making strategic moves, and even in more cyclical industries like $CLF (down today at 10.57), the discussion around AI integration for efficiency is constant. My take is that the larger players will pick off the most promising innovations to bolster their own ecosystems rather than let them grow into potential competitors, similar to how big pharma buys up biotechs.

Indonesia continues to benefit from strong commodity prices, particularly coal and palm oil. While short-term fluctuations are expected, what's the long-term outlook for these exports and their impact on the Jakarta Composite Index ($JCI)? Are there any major policy shifts expected that could alter this trajectory?

$JCI is moving hard: +4.73% on the day, now at 146.02.

Day range: 144.03 – 146.02.

What's driving it? Are you positioned? Drop your read below. 👇

$JCI is moving hard: -4.54% on the day, now at 136.88.

Day range: 136.84 – 144.05.

What's driving it? Are you positioned? Drop your read below. 👇

$JCI is moving hard: -4.05% on the day, now at 136.94.

Day range: 136.81 – 142.94.

What's driving it? Are you positioned? Drop your read below. 👇