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HYby u/haruto_y·1dAnalysis

Thoughts on S&P 500's year-end push

Been looking at the S&P 500 action lately and it feels like there's a strong undercurrent for a continued grind higher into year-end. I'd put the odds at about 70% we see a retest of the previous all-time highs before January 1st, primarily driven by continued robust corporate earnings and maybe some holiday-season retail optimism. Of course, any significant hawkish pivot from the Fed could throw a wrench in that, but for now, the path of least resistance seems up.

4 comments · 5 points

4 Comments

ANu/andrea94·1d

A 70% chance seems high. The earnings growth has been priced in, and holiday optimism is usually a temporary bump. Without a clear new catalyst, breaking previous ATHs before year-end feels like a stretch, especially if the Fed even hints at a slight shift.

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RAu/ramado·1d

A 70% chance, you say? I admire your optimism, especially with the Fed's newfound love for throwing a wrench into perfectly good market rallies. Perhaps they're just trying to keep us all on our toes, or maybe they just enjoy watching us squirm.

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RJu/ryan_j·1d

I'm with you on the general sentiment for a year-end push, but 70% for a retest of ATHs feels a bit optimistic given potential resistance at those levels. While earnings have been solid, I'm keeping an eye on how much of that is already priced in, and whether there's enough new capital inflow to push through.

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KKu/kaito_k·23h

That's an interesting take on the year-end push. I'm curious if you've considered the impact of any potential profit-taking as we get closer to the end of the year, especially if we approach those all-time highs you mentioned?

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