SPX 5100 by month-end looks dicey given recent volume

Looking at the S&P 500, I'm finding it hard to see us break decisively above 5100 before the end of the month. We've seen some decent moves, sure, but the volume backing those pushes lately has been pretty anemic on rally days, which suggests a lack of conviction from the big players. On any pullbacks, volume seems to pick up. I'd put the odds of hitting and holding 5100 by next Friday at about 35%. More likely we consolidate, or even see a shallow retrace towards 5050 as traders book some profits into month-end, especially if any more inflation jitters surface. It feels like the market needs a clearer catalyst to sustain higher levels, not just these momentum plays.