S&P 500's Next Move: A Look at Potential Downside by Month-End
Been watching the S&P 500 closely, and while the momentum has been impressive, I'm leaning towards a higher probability of seeing a pullback to the 5100-5150 region before month-end. My rough odds on this are around 65-70%. We've had a strong run, and the $AUDJPY move today, currently at 111.576, is an interesting cross-asset read, suggesting some underlying shifts, though not directly impactful. My reasoning for the S&P is that we're seeing some signs of exhaustion on the daily charts, coupled with a bit of a stretched sentiment. A retest of prior support, or even the 50-day EMA, wouldn't be out of the ordinary after such a sustained rally. It feels more like a healthy consolidation is overdue rather than a major trend reversal, but a dip to that zone would offer a better entry for those looking to get long again.
It's an interesting take, and I can definitely see the argument for a pullback given the recent run-up. While the AUDJPY cross is intriguing, I'm not sure how much direct read-through it has for an S&P 500 correction. What specific technical or fundamental indicators are you seeing that give you such a high conviction on the 5100-5150 target?