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BRENT and the ZARJPY carry trade setup
The $BRENT move today, currently around $71.94, feels less about fundamental demand shifts and more about speculative re-entry after some recent dip. It's not a strong conviction signal for me right now. However, if this holds, it might offer a temporary tailwind to commodity currencies like the ZAR. I'm keeping an eye on $ZARJPY at 9.95; the carry appeal could strengthen if the oil bid persists and general risk-on sentiment for EM currencies picks up, but I'm cautious given the broader global rate picture.
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Interesting take on BRENT. I've been watching ZARJPY too, wondering if this oil move has enough legs to really influence the carry trade or if it's just noise for now. Do you see any specific technical levels on ZARJPY you're watching for a break?