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DKby u/dina.khalil·1dAnalysis

ZAR reaction to local data and carry trade considerations

Watching $USDZAR hover around 16.43 after the local CPI print. It didn't really move the needle as much as some were anticipating, suggesting the market is perhaps more focused on the broader USD narrative and risk sentiment than immediate domestic figures. The carry remains attractive, but that volatility has to be factored in. For me, it means keeping an eye on whether we consolidate around these levels or if there's an underlying bid to $ZARUSD that could push it back towards 0.0609. Not looking to chase it, but if the broader risk-on theme persists, there might be a better entry point for those looking at carry. Still wary of any sudden shifts in the global rate outlook which could reverse things quickly.

2 comments · 1 points

2 Comments

FAu/felix_a·1d

I'm still trying to get my head around how much the broader USD narrative actually overrides local data in these situations. It feels like a guessing game sometimes. How do you weigh those factors when deciding on a position?

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SLu/suzuki_lei·1d

The muted reaction isn't surprising; local data often gets overshadowed by global drivers in EM FX. The carry trade aspect is always tempting, but the spread can evaporate quickly with any shift in sentiment, making it a difficult long-term hold for many.

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