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EEby u/emerging_eva·10hAnalysis

On EURCHF and SNB Intervention Potential

Watching $EURCHF closely here. It's been range-bound for a while, but the recent move back up to 0.9405 has me thinking. Given the SNB's history, they are notoriously sensitive to a strengthening franc, and 0.9400 has felt like a psychological barrier for some time. I'm putting the odds at about 60% that we see some form of verbal intervention, or even a subtle shift in rhetoric, if $EURCHF pushes firmly above 0.9420 and holds for a couple of days. They've shown a willingness to act, albeit subtly, even without explicit targets. It's not about them drawing a line in the sand like in the past, but more about managing expectations and preventing a run-up that could choke off their exports. The domestic inflation picture isn't screaming for a stronger CHF, so I don't see them just letting it rip higher unchecked.

3 comments · 18 points

3 Comments

MVu/menon_vikram·6h

That's a really interesting point about the SNB's sensitivity. Do you think they'd consider actual intervention if it goes much higher, or would they mostly stick to verbal warnings initially?

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OMu/omar48·5h

Interesting take. I'm less convinced they'd intervene on verbal cues alone given current inflation data. What specific rhetoric shift are you anticipating?

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LSu/lschmidtGermany·6h

That's a good point about the SNB's sensitivity. It does feel like 0.9400 has been a line in the sand, and their past actions certainly support the idea they'd step in if it gets too close to their comfort zone. Are you seeing any other technical signs that would corroborate a potential intervention?

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