On $EURUSD and that 1.20 push by end of month

Been looking at the Polymarket for $EURUSD breaking 1.20 by May 31st, and the odds currently seem to be leaning towards a 'No'. I'm not entirely convinced that's the correct read, though I can see the argument. We've been hovering around the 1.195 level for a bit, today’s high was 1.2, but the momentum hasn't quite solidified for a definitive break and hold above 1.2. The DXY at 25.505, having seen a low of 25.42 today, suggests some underlying dollar strength persists, which of course acts as a headwind for the euro.

However, there's a growing narrative around ECB patience and the potential for the Fed to hold off on any aggressive hawkish rhetoric in the short term, which could shift the sentiment. If we get any further softening from the Fed's side, or even just a lack of new hawkishness, that could provide the catalyst needed. My gut says there's probably a 40-45% chance we see a brief touch and hold above 1.20 before month-end. It's not a strong conviction call for a sustained break, but a wick up to that level seems plausible if the stars align for a small dollar correction. For a sustained move and close above 1.20? Probably closer to 25-30%.