A look at $EM and the 1.20 mark by week's end

Been watching $EM pretty closely today, hovering around the 1.195 mark. It’s been a bit of a grind, but the intraday high touched 1.20, which suggests there's some underlying interest or at least a test of that psychological level. The question now is whether we can sustain above it.

My take, looking at the recent price action and the broader sentiment around emerging markets, is that there's a roughly 60% probability we see $EM close above 1.20 by Friday's close. The reasoning isn't complex: we've had a few pushes higher that failed to hold, but the retests are becoming more frequent and the dips less severe. If we get any sort of positive news flow, even a minor one, I think it could be enough to tip us over. Conversely, a rejection here could see us retrace towards the lower end of today's range, maybe 1.19, but I'm leaning towards the former.