Considerations for $EM heading into next week

It's worth considering the trajectory of $EM given its current hold around 1.195. With the intraday high today touching 1.2, there seems to be a clear resistance forming at that level. My rough estimate for $EM to breach and hold above 1.2 by end-of-day Monday is about 40%. The momentum today felt more like a test than a definitive break, and volume didn't suggest a strong conviction move.

Conversely, a retest of the lower end of today's range, perhaps 1.190, seems more likely, maybe 60% probability. The current push up might be fading a bit as the session winds down, and profit-taking could easily bring it back to that prior support. It's not a strong directional play right now without clearer catalysts.