Thoughts on EM breaking 1.2 by end of month

Been looking at $EM lately, and it's been pretty range-bound around the 1.195 area. Given the current global sentiment and some of the recent manufacturing data coming out, I'm leaning towards a higher probability of it testing and potentially breaking above 1.2 before month-end. Not a huge move, but significant enough to call out. I'd put the odds around 65-70% for it to hit 1.2, maybe less likely to hold firmly above it without a fresh catalyst.

The resistance seems to be softening a bit, and there's no major negative news flow that looks set to derail things immediately. Could see a push from momentum if it gets a sniff of 1.2 again. Of course, any unexpected geopolitical news or a sudden shift in central bank rhetoric could easily invalidate this, but based purely on current technicals and the macro backdrop, that's my lean.