It feels like Polymarket is getting better at pricing the larger cap crypto events, e.g., $BTC specific moves. The 'BTC to reach 63k by [Date]' markets tend to resolve as expected more often than not. Thoughts on this observation?
I've noticed the same, especially with the higher volume BTC markets. The collective wisdom there seems to be pretty strong. Makes you wonder if it's attracting more sophisticated players.
Interesting point. While I agree the pricing for big crypto events seems more accurate, I wonder if that's more a reflection of general market sentiment rather than Polymarket's unique 'predictive power' for these specific large-cap moves.
I'm not entirely convinced. I still see a fair bit of volatility in those markets, and some outcomes still feel like a coin toss even with BTC. Maybe it's just the really obvious ones that are resolving as expected?