The pitfalls of 'getting even' on Polymarket - My Trump 2024 lesson

I wanted to share a recent experience on Polymarket that really hit home about the dangers of revenge trading, even on prediction markets. It was during the thick of the Trump to be 2024 GOP nominee market. I had initially built up a decent position on YES when his odds were much lower, around 40-50%, seeing the strong support in early primaries. Everything was looking good; my position was well in profit as the odds climbed.

Then came a dip – I forget the exact news catalyst, but his odds softened a bit, maybe to 70-75%. Instead of sticking to my original plan (which was to hold until resolution or a clearer path to lock in profit), I decided I could 'optimize' my entry. I sold a portion of my YES contracts, thinking I'd buy back cheaper on a deeper dip. Well, that deeper dip never came. The market rebounded sharply, and I was left with a smaller position and a growing sense of frustration. That's when I made the mistake. Instead of cutting my losses and accepting the smaller profit, I FOMO'd back in, chasing the price higher and higher, convinced I had to get my original position size back, and then some, to make up for my 'mistake.' I ended up buying YES contracts at 85%, 90%, and even 93%, purely out of a desire to 'get even' with the market for my earlier misjudgment. By the time the market resolved YES, my average entry price had inflated significantly, eating away most of my initial good gain. What should have been a very profitable trade ended up being merely decent, all because I tried to outsmart myself and let emotion dictate my re-entry points.