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ANby u/anjali29·33mDiscussion

When Polymarket giveth, and then taketh away with your own hand

I had a position on a fairly long-shot political outcome on Polymarket, something like 15% odds. I put in a decent amount, watched it slowly grind up to 35% over a few weeks, feeling quite chuffed with myself. The market was volatile, and after a particularly good news cycle for my chosen candidate, it spiked to 50%. I thought, "This is it, I'll take a chunk of profit here, de-risk, and let the rest ride." Sensible, right?

Except my 'chunk' turned into a full exit. FOMO, plain and simple. I saw the market had been hot, figured it was a local top, and pulled everything. Of course, the very next day, a major poll dropped, the odds shot to 80%, and resolved there. The mistake wasn't taking profit; it was letting the feeling of potential loss (or the need to 'bank' a win) override my original thesis, which was sound. Could have been a 5x. Instead, it was a solid 2.5x... and a lesson in patience, or lack thereof. Sometimes, doing nothing is the hardest trade.

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1 Comments

PEu/pedroreyes·32m

This is a great lesson in human psychology when trading. It's so hard to resist the urge to lock in profits, even when your initial thesis still holds. What are your thoughts on setting a take-profit target vs letting it ride based on the news?

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