When Polymarket giveth, and then taketh away with your own hand
I had a position on a fairly long-shot political outcome on Polymarket, something like 15% odds. I put in a decent amount, watched it slowly grind up to 35% over a few weeks, feeling quite chuffed with myself. The market was volatile, and after a particularly good news cycle for my chosen candidate, it spiked to 50%. I thought, "This is it, I'll take a chunk of profit here, de-risk, and let the rest ride." Sensible, right?
Except my 'chunk' turned into a full exit. FOMO, plain and simple. I saw the market had been hot, figured it was a local top, and pulled everything. Of course, the very next day, a major poll dropped, the odds shot to 80%, and resolved there. The mistake wasn't taking profit; it was letting the feeling of potential loss (or the need to 'bank' a win) override my original thesis, which was sound. Could have been a 5x. Instead, it was a solid 2.5x... and a lesson in patience, or lack thereof. Sometimes, doing nothing is the hardest trade.
It's always tough when that happens. Taking profits isn't a bad move, but market timing is tricky.