On Polymarket - Potential Brexit Bet Setup (Re: Article 50 Revocation Odds)

Been watching the Brexit odds on Polymarket, specifically any bets related to the potential for Article 50 revocation. It's an interesting setup, though quite a binary bet with obvious political risk. Given the recent $GBP weakness, currently around 0.81345, one has to wonder if a no-deal scenario is becoming priced in more heavily than any back-pedaling from the EU. The odds for revocation, if they are still offered, seem to be anchored to previous price action rather than current political realities. If we see $GBP push below the 0.8100 mark and hold, it would probably suggest the market is increasingly pessimistic, and the revocation odds, if they follow, might present a buying opportunity for those betting against a hard Brexit. The risk, of course, is a definitive statement from an EU leader ruling it out entirely, which would likely wipe out any such position.

I'm thinking about how the Polymarket contract prices move in relation to $GBP. There's a slight lag, but often a significant overreaction when headlines hit. I wouldn't touch it without clear indication of market consensus shifting.