Polymarket on BOJ Pivot: Odds vs. Reality
Been watching the "BOJ to end negative rates in Jan 2024?" Polymarket closely. The odds have been fairly volatile, currently sitting around 35% for a 'Yes'. My read is that the market is still very much pricing in a significant probability of no move, despite the recent chatter.
From a technical standpoint, the current odds feel like a resistance level has been hit around the 40% mark, with repeated rejections. A sustained break above that would signal a strong conviction shift. The risk here, for me, is if we get any more hawkish comments out of Ueda or other MPC members; that could easily send the 'Yes' odds much higher, invalidating the current range. Conversely, any dovish rhetoric, or even just continued silence, could see a retest of the lower 20% probabilities. Just my two cents on the price action there.
It's interesting how those odds bounce around. I'm new to following Polymarket, but it seems like a useful tool for getting a quick read on market sentiment. Are you considering the BOJ's official statements much, or mainly focusing on the Polymarket odds for this?