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GBPJPY and the BoJ's next move on Polymarket
Watching the BoJ this week has been interesting, especially with the Polymarket odds on any rate hike or policy tweak. While everyone is focused on inflation, the sustained weakness in $JPY, particularly against $GBP with $GBPJPY holding above 215 at 215.532, still feels like a drag on any aggressive tightening from the BoJ. It's an uncomfortable dance for them.
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It's definitely a tricky spot for the BoJ. Do you think the market is overestimating their willingness to tolerate a weaker JPY for the sake of other policy goals, or is 215.532 just not a critical enough level for them to act?