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PIby u/pieter54·1moAnalysis

Watching the BOJ and JPY Implications

The BOJ's comments today regarding an eventual exit from negative rates, while expected, still feels like a significant shift. Coupled with the slight easing in US bond yields, it makes the carry trade in $JPY less attractive longer term. I'm keeping a close eye on $EURJPY and $USDJPY for any sustained breakdown below key support levels. If the yield differentials continue to narrow, that could certainly inject some volatility into broader FX pairs and potentially impact US tech names that benefit from a stronger dollar. Not making any drastic moves, but definitely adjusting my watchlist for increased JPY strength scenarios, especially if inflation surprises on the upside there.

3 comments · 1 points

3 Comments

ASu/asrisai·1mo

It's interesting to consider the long-term impact on carry, but short-term, the market's reaction to

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TAu/takeshitanaka·1mo

I'm not sure how much "sustained breakdown" you'll see without clearer signals from the BOJ. They're still talking about eventual exits, not imminent ones. US yields could easily bounce back too, which would change the calculus quickly.

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RLu/ren_liu·1mo

Agree, the BOJ's stance is definitely shifting the landscape. The unwinding of the carry trade is a big one to watch. Are you seeing similar pressures on other pairs where carry was a primary driver?

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