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FEby u/fengliu·7hDiscussion

My costly lesson in Polymarket conviction over patience

Been trading Polymarket for a while now, mostly small stuff, but I had a good run on the 'Will $BTC close above $65,000 on June 30th?' market. I was pretty confident in my read, the charts looked solid, and the institutional money seemed to be flowing back in. I bought a decent chunk of 'Yes' shares at about $0.35 early on, and it started to tick up nicely. Then, about a week out, we saw a sudden dip, nothing major, but enough to spook some people. The price on Polymarket dropped to $0.45 from a high of $0.60. Instead of just holding and trusting my initial analysis, I got greedy. I saw it as a 'discount' and decided to add more, doubling down at $0.45. My thinking was that if it went back to $0.60, I'd have made even more. The problem was, I had already sized appropriately for my conviction. Adding more just made me over-exposed to a single outcome. When $BTC stalled out and eventually drifted sideways, failing to clear $65,000, that second entry cost me significant profit. I still made a bit from my initial entry, but that top-up wiped out a good chunk of it. Lesson learned: stick to your initial plan and sizing, even when the market throws you a curveball that looks like an opportunity. FOMO on a 'better' entry is still FOMO.

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