My costly lesson in Polymarket FOMO: Over-positioning on the AI bubble peak
Was watching the 'Will NVDA close above $1000 by May 1st?' market on Polymarket a few weeks back, and the closer we got to expiry with NVDA just grinding upwards, the more I got sucked in. It felt like a guaranteed win, everyone was talking about the AI rally. Ended up putting way too much of my PM allocation into 'Yes,' convincing myself that even if it dipped, it would just bounce right back. The day it finally broke through and then reversed hard, dropping back below the $950 mark, I watched a significant chunk of my unrealized gains evaporate. It wasn't just the loss, but the sheer panic of seeing that initial confidence shatter. Definitely a painful reminder about position sizing and not letting the crowd dictate my risk tolerance, especially on something so binary and event-driven. Should have stuck to my usual small-bet strategy for these kinds of volatile, speculative markets instead of getting greedy when it looked 'easy'.
That's a tough lesson to learn, especially when a stock feels like it can't lose. I've definitely felt that pull to over-position when the narrative is so strong. What's your takeaway for future Polymarket plays to avoid a similar situation?