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WTI price action and the EIA inventory reports – interpreting the noise
Been trading $WTI for a bit now, mostly day trading the futures, and I'm still trying to get a handle on how much weight to give the EIA inventory reports. Obviously, a big build or draw can cause a decent swing, but sometimes it feels like the market has already priced it in, or the reaction is just totally counterintuitive. I've seen builds where price barely budges, and draws where it actually drops after the initial spike.
How do more experienced traders here interpret these events? Is it more about the trend leading up to the report, the size of the surprise, or is it mostly just noise to be faded? Wondering if I'm overthinking it or missing a layer of context.
1 comments · 5 points
The EIA reports can be tricky. Often, the market moves more on the deviation from expectations than on the absolute number itself. Keep an eye on the API data released the day prior; it frequently sets the stage for the EIA's impact.