6
When is it 'news' vs. 'noise' for crude inventory reports?
Alright, so I'm trying to get a handle on the weekly crude inventory reports. I know they're supposed to be a big deal for $CL_F, and sometimes the market reacts sharply, but other times it just shrugs even with a seemingly large beat or miss. It feels like 3 out of 5 times the initial pop or drop just fades within the hour. Am I just misunderstanding the actual drivers, or is there a 'threshold' where you guys start to pay serious attention, beyond just the headline number? What actually makes it 'news' instead of just noise for your trading decisions?
1 comments · 6 points
Often, it's about what the number implies for future supply/demand, not just the absolute deviation. A large build when refinery activity is down might be noise, but a large build during peak driving season could be news, depending on the context of imports/exports and refining margins.