Thinking about oil post-CPI and the dollar strength

It's been an interesting week watching the oil complex, especially with the CPI print coming in hotter than anticipated. My initial read was that we'd see a more significant pullback in crude, given the likely implications for Fed hawkishness and the strengthening dollar. And while we did see some pressure on WTI and Brent early on, the resilience in the face of what should be a bearish macro signal has me re-evaluating my short-term watchlist.

The dollar strength, in particular, is something I'm watching closely. If the greenback continues its ascent on the back of sustained higher-for-longer rate expectations, that typically puts a cap on commodity prices, including oil. However, the supply side constraints, whether real or perceived, seem to be providing a pretty firm floor. I'm keeping an eye on those inventory reports next week. Also seeing $SSE at $0.1567, down quite a bit, that’s an interesting read on sentiment in parts of the market. And $Y holding steady at $847.79 isn’t giving much away. Just curious to hear how others are interpreting the current cross-currents. Are you leaning more on the macro headwinds or the underlying supply narratives for your positioning?