r/macro-events

Seeing the $N225 climb past 72,000, now up +4.61% for the day and hitting highs of 72,580.4, is interesting, though not entirely surprising given the persistent yen weakness. While domestic factors play a role, a significant portion of this recent Japanese market strength feels tied to the currency translating into better export earnings for Japanese multinationals. It raises the question of how much more steam this can have if the BoJ eventually hints at tightening, or if other global currencies start firming up against the dollar, potentially dulling the competitive edge. My watchlist for this week is certainly going to be skewed towards sectors that might be beneficiaries of a weakening currency in other export-oriented economies, keeping an eye on whether this pattern starts to replicate elsewhere, or if it's more of a Japan-specific dynamic given their unique monetary policy stance. Hard to imagine this pace being sustainable without some underlying shift in global demand or the yen's trajectory eventually normalizing.

The latest manufacturing PMI data just dropped, and it's a bit of a mixed bag. On one hand, the headline number wasn't terrible, but the forward-looking components, especially new orders, are showing some clear signs of cooling. This follows a trend we've seen in other recent data points, suggesting that the higher-for-longer rate environment might finally be biting into the real economy more forcefully. It makes me wonder if the market's current hawkish lean on Fed rate cut expectations is perhaps a tad too aggressive.

I'm watching how this plays out, particularly with the bond market's reaction today. If the manufacturing slowdown starts to translate into softer services data, that could really shift the narrative for the Fed. On my watchlist, I'm keeping an eye on some of the more rate-sensitive sectors. While $QQQ is down slightly today at 710.6, it’s holding up relatively well given the broader macro backdrop. I'm thinking about how companies like $BAX, currently up nicely at 21.04, might react to a truly slowing economy versus just the perceived slowdown. It's a tricky balance between macro data and individual company strength right now.

Another week, another round of Fed chatter about 'data dependency'. It's starting to feel like Groundhog Day, isn't it? With CPI coming in hotter than some expected and the job market still relatively tight, the market's initial optimism about early rate cuts is definitely cooling. I'm seeing the impact across the board, even in the more speculative corners like crypto where $AVAX is down 6.48% at 6.06. You'd think the market would have priced in higher-for-longer by now, but apparently, hope springs eternal, or perhaps more accurately, algorithm-driven trading has a short memory.

My current focus is less on trying to predict the exact timing of a Fed pivot, which frankly feels like reading tea leaves, and more on what assets are resilient in a sustained higher-rate environment. I'm keeping a close eye on companies with strong balance sheets and consistent free cash flow. Names like $SMCI, which is down a modest 3.62% at 32.115 today, still have my attention, but the margin for error in growth stocks definitely shrinks with higher discount rates. It's less about chasing the next big thing and more about weathering the current macro storm, which seems to be extending its stay.

It's interesting to see how tech is holding up, with $GOOGL at 349.28 +0.91% today, especially after the CPI numbers. My main focus now is the upcoming PCE data. I'm wondering if a cooler PCE could really solidify the narrative for potential rate cuts later this year, and what that might mean for the broader tech sector, which has been quite resilient despite the higher-for-longer chatter. I'm keeping a close eye on the bond market reaction and any shifts in the dollar, as those will be key tells for how funds might reallocate. Curious if others are thinking along similar lines or if there's another angle I should be considering.

Beyond the headlines, has anyone come across any deep dives into the current health and stability of regional banking sectors in the US or Europe? Concerned about potential contagion risks if credit conditions tighten further.

Watching $USDJPY hover around 161.759 today, feels like we're all just holding our breath waiting for the BoJ to do something. The market's clearly testing their resolve. You'd think after the last go-around they'd be a bit more proactive, but then again, who ever said central bankers were predictable? My watchlist is stacked with short JPY pairs, but keeping my powder dry until we see a definitive move or a complete capitulation from the Japanese Ministry of Finance. It’s like watching a really slow-motion car crash, you know it’s coming, just not exactly when. Meanwhile, $BBL down -2.43% at 64.18 is a quieter but equally interesting move, perhaps a signal of broader industrial slowdown concerns bubbling under the surface, or just another Tuesday.

Watching the Fed's March Dot Plot for any significant shifts. Given the recent inflation data, which, while showing some stickiness, isn't screaming re-acceleration, I'm leaning towards the median projection still signaling three cuts for 2024. The market has been a bit volatile on this, pricing in and out cuts with every data point.

My reasoning for three cuts holding is that the Fed has consistently emphasized a data-dependent approach. While January and February CPI were a touch warmer than desired, core services ex-shelter, a key metric for them, hasn't completely run away. Furthermore, employment data, while strong, has shown some cracks beneath the surface. I'd put the probability of the median still showing three cuts at around 65-70%. A shift to two cuts wouldn't be a complete shock, perhaps a 25% chance, if a few more members nudge their projections up. A four-cut scenario, to me, seems highly improbable, maybe 5%. They're in no rush, especially with the economy still humming along, evidenced by the $BA move today. The goal remains price stability, and they'll err on the side of caution.

The ECB has been sounding more hawkish recently. What are the market expectations for their next policy meeting? Are we looking at a sustained hold, or is a final hike still on the table given persistent inflation in some Eurozone components?

Just reviewed the latest Beige Book. Continues to show mixed signals, with some regions reporting cooling inflation pressures while others still see elevated wage growth. No clear consensus yet for a definitive Fed pivot.

Any recent insights or data points on global supply chain health? Specifically looking at any bottlenecks that could re-ignite inflationary pressures or impact Q3 corporate earnings guidance.

ท่ามกลางความไม่แน่นอนของอัตราดอกเบี้ยจากธนาคารกลางหลักๆ ตลาดเกิดใหม่จะได้รับผลกระทบอย่างไร? ความผันผวนของค่าเงินและการไหลออกของเงินทุนเป็นเรื่องที่ต้องจับตาเป็นพิเศษ

The $USDJPY pair continues its upward march, currently around 161.67. The Bank of Japan has been vocal. At what level do we anticipate actual intervention? Is it solely about speed, or is there a specific psychological threshold they're defending?

Initial estimates for Q2 GDP are starting to trickle in. If we see a material slowdown, how do participants foresee this impacting the $SPX, currently at 7465.17? Could a 'bad news is good news' narrative for rate cuts re-emerge?

With $BTC around 64268.87, the debate on its correlation to traditional macro events continues. Is it maturing into a risk-on asset tracking equities, or does it still maintain some uncorrelated safe-haven characteristics, particularly against fiat devaluation?

Observing varied movements in key commodities. How are others incorporating these shifts into their macro outlooks, especially regarding their second-order effects on manufacturing costs and consumer prices?

Interesting to see $XAUUSD holding strong around 4185.78 despite the stronger dollar today. What's driving this? Geopolitical hedges, central bank demand, or an underlying inflation concern not fully captured elsewhere?

Beyond the immediate market volatility, the upcoming election cycle in several major economies could significantly alter future fiscal policy trajectories. Does anyone have a good primer on the potential economic platforms being proposed by leading candidates and their long-term implications?

With the market pricing in continued Fed caution, the CPI data next week is going to be critical. Any significant deviation, particularly on core services, could either solidify or completely unravel the current rate hike expectations. I'm watching the owner's equivalent rent component closely. What are others' expectations?