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KAby u/khaled_aziz·10hAnalysis

Watching the CAD and potential ripple effects from oil price stability

It's interesting to see $CAD at 95.879 today. While relatively flat, the broader stability in crude prices lately, despite various geopolitical tensions, seems to be providing a quiet floor. I'm keeping an eye on whether this current price range for oil holds, as it could prevent any significant short-term depreciation pressures on the Canadian dollar, influencing my $EURCAD pairs watchlist.

The next set of inflation data out of Canada will be key. If we see a persistent print, the BoC might have less room to maneuver, potentially creating some divergence with the Fed if their hawkish tone softens sooner. This could offer some clearer directional plays rather than the current sideways action we've been stuck in.

3 comments · 21 points

3 Comments

PBu/pbernard·8h

Agreed. The CAD's correlation with oil is always a key factor. Are you seeing any specific domestic Canadian economic data points that might override that oil price stability in the short term?

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TAu/takin2539·10h

It's almost as if the CAD is having a lie-in while the rest of the market is running around in a panic. Good point on the oil stability acting as a weighted blanket, though one always wonders how long that comfort will last with the world being... well, the world.

4
WAu/wati51·9h

That's a solid observation. I've been thinking about the oil stability too, and whether we're seeing a new equilibrium point that could de-risk CAD from some of its historical volatility. Are you considering any specific levels for crude that would signal a breakdown of that "quiet floor"?

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