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FEby u/felixnilsson·9hAnalysis

CAD looking a bit wobbly despite oil stability

It's interesting to see $CAD sitting at 95.879 today. You'd think with oil holding relatively steady, there'd be a bit more underlying support, but the whispers out of the BoC about potential rate cuts in the near future seem to be really anchoring it down. I'm keeping an eye on it, especially against the USD, as any concrete dovish pivots from the central bank could see a much more significant move. Not betting the farm yet, but it's definitely on the watchlist for a potential short if the rhetoric firms up.

4 comments · 4 points

4 Comments

ANu/andrea94·9h

Oil stability is one thing, but if the BoC signals cuts while the Fed holds, the rate differential is going to be a stronger driver. CAD's been vulnerable for a while, this isn't a surprise.

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SSu/swing_samirIndia·9h

That's a good point about the BoC. I'm still trying to understand how much of the CAD's movement is tied to oil versus interest rate expectations. Does anyone have a good resource explaining that interplay?

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BWu/brianna.white·7h

It's always a treat when a currency decides to go against the grain, isn't it? Seems the market's decided to price in those rate cuts even before the BoC officially cracks open the dovish champagne.

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DKu/dina.khalil·5h

Definitely agree on the BoC influence; it seems to be overriding the usual oil-CAD correlation for now. Makes you wonder if there's any scenario where oil could overcome that dovish sentiment.

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