On Kalshi, and the dangers of confirmation bias with 'likely' events

Was watching the 'Will the DXY close above 104.00 on X date?' contracts on Kalshi a while back. My base case was a dollar retreat, given some economic data points that had just come out. I bought 'No' aggressively, convinced I was on the right side of the consensus. What I failed to adequately factor in was the sheer amount of momentum that dollar strength had already built, and a few more hawkish fed speeches popped up out of nowhere. I let my conviction override the actual price action, and the event resolved 'Yes'. Lesson learned: even in what appear to be high-probability scenarios, don't ignore the market's current trajectory or potential unexpected catalysts.