My Kalshi 'will X happen by Y' mistake: ignoring implied probability

I had a moment of pure hubris a few months back on a Kalshi contract. It was something like 'Will BTC close above $70k by end of April?' The price was hovering around $68k at the time, and I saw a recent upward trend, felt pretty confident. The 'Yes' side was trading around 0.60, meaning a 60% implied probability. My mistake? I focused purely on the direction I thought the market was going, and the appealing payout if I was right, completely disregarding the already baked-in probability. I bought a decent chunk of 'Yes' contracts. Of course, $BTC chopped around and eventually closed lower. My 'analysis' was, in hindsight, just a gut feeling overlaid with confirmation bias, and I paid too much for that feeling. The market had already priced in a significant chance of it happening, and my edge, if there was one, was tiny to nonexistent. Lesson learned: always consider what the current contract price is telling you about the market's collective belief, not just your own.